Nigeria’s GDP Grows Marginally By 0.51% in Q1 2021

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.51% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2021, marking two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

The Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87% growth rate recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11% recorded in Q4 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -13.93% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, reflecting a generally slower pace of economic activities at the start of the year.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40,014,482.74 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N35,647,406.08 million, indicating a year on year nominal growth rate of 12.25%.

The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to the 12.01% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020 as well as the 10.07% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

The Oil Sector

In the first quarter of 2021, average daily oil production stood at 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.35mbpd lower than the average daily production of 2.07mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 but higher than the production volume of 1.56mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. (Figure2).

The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of -2.21% (year-on-year) in Q1 2021 indicating a decrease of -7.27% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 (5.06%).

Compared to Q4 2020 which recorded a -19.76% growth rate, growth in Q1 2021 was higher by 17.55% points. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 35.65% in Q1 2021.

In terms of contribution to aggregate GDP, the Oil sector accounted for 9.25% of aggregate real GDP in Q1 2021, slightly lower than 9.5% recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 but higher than in the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87%.

The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 0.79% in real terms in Q1 2021, which was -0.75% points lower compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.89% points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector while other drivers include Agriculture (Crop Production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate; Construction and Human Health & Social Services.

In real terms, the Non-oil sector accounted for 90.75% of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50% but lower than 94.13% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Mining & Quarrying

This sector grew nominally by –0.13% (year on year) in Q1 2021. Metal Ore exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 46.05%, followed by Coal mining activity at 14.11%.

However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 99.47% in Q1 2021.

Comparing Q1 2021’s rate of growth against the Q1 2020 and Q4 2020 growth rates indicates an increase of 10.44% points and 12.19% points respectively.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 7.09% to aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, lower than the contributions recorded in the first quarter of 2020 at 7.97% but higher than the previous quarter growth rate of 5.46%.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –2.19% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2021.

Compared to the same quarter of 2020, the sector growth rate was lower by –6.77% points but higher by 16.25% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Quarter on quarter, the growth rate recorded was 31.15%.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 9.28%, lower than the rate of 9.54% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 but higher than the 6.09% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Agriculture

Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 15.14% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2021, showing a decline of -7.33% points from the corresponding quarter of 2020 but an increase of 1.11% points when compared with the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 14.03%.

Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector, as it accounts for 71.69% of the overall nominal growth of the sector in the first quarter of 2021. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at –18.80% in the first quarter of 2021.

Agriculture contributed 21.42% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021. This figure was higher than the rates recorded for the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded 20.88% and 24.23% respectively.

In real terms, the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2021 grew by 2.28% (year-on-year), an increase of 0.07% points from the corresponding period of 2020, but a decrease of -1.14% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 3.42%. Quarter-on-quarter, the agriculture sector grew at –28.61%.

In terms of contribution, the sector accounted for 22.35% of overall GDP in real terms in Q1 2021, higher than the contribution in the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which stood at 21.96% and 26.95% respectively.

Manufacturing

Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2021 was recorded at 32.10% (year-on-year), 3.62% points higher than recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 (28.47%) and 7.50% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 24.60%.

Quarter-on-quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 9.03%. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was 15.27%, which was also higher than the corresponding period of 2020 at 12.98% and the fourth quarter of 2020 at 12.87%.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2021 was 3.40% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2020 and the preceding quarter by 2.97% points and 4.92% points respectively.

The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at -0.66%. The real contribution to GDP was 9.93%, higher than the 9.65% recorded in the first quarter of 2020 and 8.60% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Construction

The Construction sector grew by 43.88% in nominal terms (year on year) in the first quarter of 2021, a drop by –0.38% points compared to the rate of 44.26% recorded in the same quarter of 2020.

There was an increase by 0.30% points when compared to the rate recorded in the preceding quarter. Nominal growth quarter-on-quarter was recorded at 11.27%.

Construction contributed 10.17% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than the 7.94% it contributed a year earlier and the 8.40% contributed in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The real growth rate of the construction sector in the first quarter of 2021 was recorded at 1.42% (year on year), lower by –0.26% points from the rate recorded the previous year.

Relative to the preceding quarter, there was an increase of 0.21% points. Quarter on quarter, the sector grew by 1.95% in real terms, higher than the 1.74% it recorded in the first quarter of 2020.

Its contribution to aggregate real GDP was 4.12% in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its contribution of 4.08% in the same quarter of the previous year, and the preceding quarter where it contributed 3.47%.