Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Now 18.71% as Food Index Hits 22.95%

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures the inflation rate increased by 18.17 percent (year-on-year) in March 2021. This is 0.82 percent points higher than the rate recorded in February 2021 (17.33 percent).

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.56 percent in March 2021. This is 0.02 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in February 2021 (1.54 percent).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending March 2021, over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 14.55 percent, representing a 0.50 percent point increase over 14.05 percent recorded in February 2021.

The urban inflation rate increased by 18.76 percent (year-on-year) in March 2021 from 17.92 percent recorded in February 2021, while the rural inflation rate increased by 17.60 percent in March 2021 from 16.77 percent in February 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.60 percent in March 2021, up by 0.02 compared to the rate recorded in February 2021, while the rural index also rose by 1.52 percent in March 2021, up by 0.02 compared to the rate that was recorded in February 2021 (1.50 percent).

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 15.15 percent in March 2021. This is higher than 14.66 percent reported in February 2021, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in March 2021 is 13.99 percent compared to 13.48 percent recorded in February 2021.

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 22.95 percent in March 2021 compared to 21.79 percent in February 2021. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Meat, Vegetable, Fish, Oils and fats and fruits. On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.90 percent in March 2021, up by 0.01 percent points from 1.89 percent recorded in February 2021.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending March 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 17.93  percent, 0.68  percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2021 (17.25) percent.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 12.67 percent in March 2021, up by 0.29 percent when compared with 12.38 percent recorded in February 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.06 percent in March 2021. This was down by 0.15 percent when compared with 1.21 percent recorded in February 2021.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Passenger transport by road, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Vehicle spare parts, Dental services, Motor cars, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, and Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment,

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 10.01 percent for the twelve-month period ending March 2021; this is 0.76 percent points lower than the 10.77 percent recorded in February 2021.

State Profiles – All Items Inflation

In March 2021, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kogi (24.51%), Bauchi (22.24%) and Sokoto (20.70%), while Imo (16.08%), Kwara (15.34%) and Cross River (14.45%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, March 2021 all items inflation was highest in Rivers (2.62%), Gombe (2.14%) and Niger (2.12%), while Zamfara (0.60%), Yobe (0.26%) and Kebbi (0.45%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month.

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

Food Inflation

In March 2021, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (29.71%), Sokoto (27.02%) and Ebonyi (26.59%), while Abuja (20.10%), Kebbi (19.98%) and Bauchi (18.61%) recorded the slowest rise .in year on year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, March 2021 food inflation was highest in Rivers (3.52%), Niger (2.92%) and Gombe (2.85%), while Zamfara (0.51%) recording the slowest rise in a month on month food inflation with Yobe and Kebbi recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).