End-Of-Year Decline in Nigeria Eclipses Long-Term FMCG Growth

A last quarter slump in FMCG sales has taken the shine off an otherwise positive year for the sector in the African country.

Nigeria’s first recession in four years has led to a dip in FMCG performance despite overall year on year growth in 2020.

FMCG remained resilient during the lockdown but GDP contractions at the year-end and rising inflation caused by currency movements have seen consumers tighten their belts.

The first three quarters of the year were a positive story, as consumers filled up on extra big shopping baskets to make every trip count. By Q4, however, basket size started to drop, hitting volume sales.

Overall year-on-year growth of 21% by volume was driven by more family time, with Food (up 21% year on year by volume) and Beverage (up 29% year on year) categories seeing the biggest uplift during the year. There was relatively tame growth for Homecare (up 15% year on year) and Personal Care (up 8% year on year).

Local retailers benefited as consumers chose to stay near home, encouraging wealthier groups to shop more locally. Volume sales in grocers and local stores rose by 33.7% across the whole year and kiosks also benefited from a 17.6% rise.

The fastest growth rates in local outlets in Nigeria were for ball foods, custard, edible oil and margarine.